1. AI semis: memory bounced in Asia, but the bear case is now louder.
Korea’s KOSPI rebounded 5.76% on 3 July after a sharp sell-off, with SK Hynix up 10.9% and Samsung up 8.2%, supported by renewed memory enthusiasm and reports of Samsung talks with Anthropic. The debate is whether this is a healthy reset in the cleanest AI scarcity trade, or the first proper warning that investors are capitalising peak HBM/DRAM pricing too aggressively. Most exposed: MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, TSMC and NVDA.
2. Micron has become the battleground stock for the entire AI infrastructure trade.
Micron fell 5.5% on Thursday after a prior 10.6% drop, even though DRAM pricing remains tight and it recently signed long-term supply deals including GM. The bull case is contracted scarcity; the bear case is Michael Burry-style “peak FOMO”, with the stock up 241% in 2026 before the pullback. If Micron breaks, AI capex sentiment breaks; if it stabilises, the semi trade can re-open.
3. Software’s rebound is now valuation-led, not AI-led.
Salesforce, ServiceNow and broader SaaS are bouncing because analysts argue “AI Armageddon” fears are overdone, not because AI monetisation is suddenly proven. That is important: the market is willing to buy washed-out software, but the sustainable rerating still needs evidence of usage pricing, workflow control and agentic AI attach. Most exposed: CRM, NOW, WDAY, ADBE, HUBS, TEAM, PLTR and DDOG.
4. Palantir is the cleanest software counter-narrative to “AI kills SaaS”.
Palantir’s Nvidia partnership helped reverse a sharp losing streak, with shares up 19% since 25 June after a 9% move on Wednesday. The debate is whether PLTR is genuinely becoming an AI operating layer for government and enterprise workflows, or simply the highest-beta expression of the software rebound. Read-across is positive for workflow/control-plane software: PLTR, NOW, DDOG, SNOW, MSFT and cyber platforms.
5. Cybersecurity remains the best software sub-sector debate.
The strongest argument is that AI does not replace cyber spend; it increases vulnerability discovery, attack automation, identity sprawl and remediation workload. J.P. Morgan’s framing around Chinese AI vulnerability discovery is supportive for CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Tenable and Qualys. The risk is valuation and proof: investors now need platform ARR, renewal expansion and AI-security monetisation, not just “AI tailwind” language. Exposed: CRWD, PANW, ZS, FTNT, TENB, QLYS, OKTA, S and NET.
