1. AI semis: Asia bounced, but the debate is still “scarcity versus overbuild.”
South Korea’s KOSPI rebounded 2.8% after the prior sell-off, with Samsung up 7% and SK Hynix up 4.9%, but the US tape stayed weak in AI chips: Micron fell 5.5%, Nvidia 1.4% and Lam Research 10.2%. The investor debate is whether the memory/HBM pullback is healthy profit-taking after a huge run, or the first sign that the market is starting to discount 2028–30 overcapacity risk. Most exposed: MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, NVDA, ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC and TSMC.
2. Meta’s cloud pivot is the cleanest sign hyperscalers want AI capex monetisation, not just model leadership.
Meta is reportedly building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute, letting developers access Meta-hosted models and pay for usage. That is strategically logical, but it also exposes the core bear case: if every AI spender tries to resell capacity, pricing power may shift away from cloud providers and toward scarce inputs like GPUs, memory, networking and power. Exposed: META, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, ORCL, NVDA, AVGO, AMD and CoreWeave.
3. Meta also admitted AI agents are progressing slower than expected — a negative read for near-term SaaS disruption, but not a full bull case.
Zuckerberg reportedly told staff that AI-agent development is moving slower than expected, despite a $145bn AI infrastructure budget and major internal restructuring. For SaaS, this supports the “AI Armageddon is overdone” camp: enterprise workflows will not be replaced overnight. The counter is that slower agent progress also delays AI monetisation for software vendors. Exposed: CRM, NOW, WDAY, ADBE, MSFT, PLTR and enterprise automation names.
4. Software’s rally is becoming more stock-specific: Palantir and ServiceNow-style workflow control are being rewarded.
Palantir was upgraded to Buy by DA Davidson, with a $175 target, on the argument that its Ontology layer improves AI model security and accuracy and that government AI restrictions may favour PLTR. Separately, Guggenheim’s software upgrade cycle lifted ServiceNow, Salesforce and Check Point, arguing embedded enterprise systems are undervalued versus AI-replacement fears. The debate is now less “AI kills software” and more “which software owns the workflow/control plane?” Exposed: PLTR, NOW, CRM, CHKP, PANW, DDOG and SNOW.
5. Cyber remains the cleaner software debate, but investors still need proof of platform monetisation.
The cyber thesis is benefiting from the same logic as Palantir: AI needs governance, secure data flows, identity control, runtime monitoring and enforcement points. The risk is valuation: if cyber stocks rerate on AI narrative alone, the next earnings season must show ARR attach, platformised customers, renewal strength and AI-security monetisation. Most exposed: PANW, CRWD, FTNT, ZS, CHKP, OKTA, TENB, QLYS, NET and DDOG.
