1. AI semis: Micron is now the sentiment fulcrum.
Micron closed below $1,000 for the first time since mid-June after two sharp down days, despite the broader AI-memory story remaining intact. The debate is whether this is just valuation digestion after a 240%+ 2026 move, or whether HBM/DRAM scarcity is starting to price in peak optimism. Most exposed: MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, WDC, STX and ASML.
2. Korea’s AI-chip buildout validates demand, but also creates the next bear case.
South Korea’s Samsung/SK Hynix-led plan includes c.$518bn of chip-fab investment and broader AI/data-centre ambitions. Bulls see sovereign confirmation that memory and packaging are strategic bottlenecks; bears see the seeds of 2028–30 overcapacity. Exposed: SK Hynix, Samsung, MU, ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC and TSMC.
3. Software’s bounce is now an “AI Armageddon is overdone” trade.
Guggenheim’s upgrades of Salesforce, ServiceNow and Check Point helped reframe the software debate: enterprise systems may be disrupted by agents, but embedded workflows, customer data and renewal inertia still matter. The bull case is multiple repair; the bear case is that organic growth and AI monetisation remain unproven. Exposed: CRM, NOW, CHKP, WDAY, ADBE, TEAM, HUBS and ORCL.
4. Palantir is the cleanest software counter-narrative.
Palantir’s Nvidia partnership helped reverse a seven-day losing streak, with the stock up 19% from 25 June after a 9% Wednesday move. The debate is whether PLTR is becoming an AI control plane for secure government/enterprise workflows, or simply the highest-beta beneficiary of software short-covering. Read-across: PLTR, NOW, DDOG, SNOW, MSFT, PANW and CRWD.
5. Cybersecurity still has the best AI demand logic inside software.
J.P. Morgan’s view that Chinese AI progress should increase demand for Western cyber tools supports the core thesis: AI raises vulnerability discovery, attack automation, identity sprawl and remediation workload. The risk is that stocks now need evidence, not narrative — ARR attach, platformisation, renewal expansion and AI-security monetisation. Exposed: CRWD, PANW, TENB, QLYS, ZS, FTNT, OKTA and S.
